信息通信技术与政策

信息通信技术与政策

信息通信技术与政策 ›› 2024, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (11): 33-40.doi: 10.12267/j.issn.2096-5931.2024.11.006

专题:低空经济开启天空“新蓝海” 上一篇    下一篇

低空经济市场空间预测研究

Research on market space forecast of low-altitude economy

孙国辉, 聂鹏, 赵丽彤   

  1. 中国信息通信研究院知识产权与创新发展中心,北京 100191
  • 收稿日期:2024-10-23 出版日期:2024-11-25 发布日期:2024-11-29
  • 作者简介:
    孙国辉 中国信息通信研究院知识产权与创新发展中心低空经济研究部工程师,主要从事低空经济领域以及专利咨询等方面研究;
    聂鹏 中国信息通信研究院知识产权与创新发展中心低空经济研究部工程师,主要从事低空经济以及相关专利等方面研究;
    赵丽彤 中国信息通信研究院知识产权与创新发展中心低空经济研究部工程师,主要从事低空经济领域产业以及标准必要专利等方面研究

SUN Guohui, NIE Peng, ZHAO Litong   

  1. Intellectual Property and Innovation Development Center, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing 100191, China
  • Received:2024-10-23 Online:2024-11-25 Published:2024-11-29

摘要:

低空经济具有产业链条长、辐射范围广的特点,涵盖低空制造、低空基础设施、低空应用和低空服务保障4个板块。为衡量低空经济产业的经济价值,利用比例推算法和成本效益法分别对低空制造、低空基础设施、低空应用3类产业的市场空间开展测算,并利用政策影响模型和时间序列预测模型对测算结果进行加权修正,从而明确低空经济未来发展趋势。

关键词: 低空经济, 无人机, eVTOL

Abstract:

Low-altitude economy is characterized by its extensive industrial chain and wide radiation scope, covering low-altitude manufacturing, low-altitude infrastructure, low-altitude applications, and low-altitude service support. To evaluate the economic value of low-altitude economy industries, this paper employs both the proportional extrapolation and the cost-benefit analysis to estimate the market potential of low-altitude manufacturing, low-altitude infrastructure, and low-altitude applications. Furthermore, the paper utilizes a policy impact model and a time-series forecasting model to perform weighted corrections on the estimation results, thereby clarifying the future development trends of low-altitude economy.

Key words: low-altitude economy, drone, eVTOL

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