信息通信技术与政策

信息通信技术与政策

信息通信技术与政策 ›› 2021, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9): 55-59.doi: 10.12267/j.issn.2096-5931.2021.09.009

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5G 经济社会影响机理与测算研究

Research on the mechanism and calculation of 5G economic and social impact

陆洋,韦柳融   

  1. 中国信息通信研究院政策与经济研究所,北京 100191
  • 出版日期:2021-09-15 发布日期:2021-09-07
  • 作者简介:
    陆洋:中国信息通信研究院政策与经济研究所工程师,主要从事数字经济和数字化转型领域的研究工作
    韦柳融:中国信息通信研究院政策与经济研究所副总工程师,中国信息通信研究院信息网络领域副主席,主要从事新一代信息技术产业和信息基础设施政策研究工作

LU Yang,WEI Liurong   

  1. Policy and Economics Research Institute, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology,Beijing 100191, China
  • Online:2021-09-15 Published:2021-09-07

摘要: 5G 商用以来,我国已在标准数量、网络规模、用户数量等多个方面取得全球领先优势,厘清5G 产业生态和经济价值将为5G 应用产业快速发展提供理论支撑。从终端、网络、平台、应用、安全等层面阐述了5G 产业生态体系的内涵和特征,然后从定性和定量的视角,深入分析5G 对于经济社会发展的影响机理和传导路径。从定性角度看,短期内5G 网络作为固定资产投资,通过乘数效应数倍地增加产出;当5G 从导入期进入规模应用阶段,将持续发挥外溢作用,优化资源配置、提升生产效率、推动产业转型,最终促进经济长期增长。从定量角度看,采用国民经济核算中的生产法测算2020 年5G 经济社会贡献,通过量化分析发现,5G 以扩大有效投资、促进消费升级、创造就业和激发创业等方式为经济发展提供新动能。

关键词: 5G 经济, 产业体系, 影响机理, 测算方法

Abstract: Since the commercialization of 5G, China has achieved global leading advantages in the number of standards,network scale, number of users, etc. Clarifying the ecological and economic value of 5G industry will providetheoretical support for the rapid development of 5G application industry. Firstly, the connotation and characteristics of5G industry ecosystem are elaborated from the aspects of terminals, networks, platforms, applications and security.Then, from a qualitative and quantitative perspective, the impact mechanism and transmission path of 5G on economicand social development are analysed in-depth. From a qualitative point of view, 5G network, as a fixed assetinvestment, will increase output several times through multiplier effect in the short term; when 5G enters the stage of large-scale applications from the introduction period, it will continue to play a role of spillover effect, optimize resource allocation, improve production efficiency, promote industrial transformation, and finally promote long-term economic growth. From a quantitative point of view, the production method in national economic accounting is used to measure the economic and social contribution of 5G in 2020. Through quantitative analysis, it is found that 5G provides new momentum for economic development by expanding effective investment, promoting consumption upgrading, creating employment and stimulating entrepreneurship.

Key words: 5G economy, industrial system, influence mechanism, measurement method